Tuesday, February 23, 2010

South Florida Home Prices Decline Slowly

South Florida Real Estate

Miami, Florida – Data through December 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell in the fourth quarter of 2009, but it has improved in its annual rate of return compared to third quarter reports.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 2.5 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2009 versus the fourth quarter of 2008. While down, it’s a significant improvement over the annual rates reported in the first, second and third quarters of the year, at -19.0 percent, -14.7 percent and -8.7 percent, respectively.

In December, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 2.4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. These two indices, which are reported monthly, have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month since the beginning of the year.

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

“In the most recent months, we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month-to-month improvements in December over November when you look at the raw data. We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December. Similarly, the National Composite fell by 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, but rose by 1.6 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

As of the 4th quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in the summer of 2003. The 4th quarter values fell when compared to the 3rd quarter; however, the decline in the annual rate of return has significantly improved.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to show improvement in their annual rates of return. In fact, all 20 metro areas and the two Composites saw improvement in their annual returns compared to November’s data. Only three cities – Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa – still showed double digit annual rates of decline as of the end of 2009. Miami, Phoenix and Seattle all moved above such rates with December’s report.

Looking at the monthly statistics, 15 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in December over November, with Chicago posting the sharpest decline, down 1.6 percent. Las Vegas finally posted its first positive print in more than three years, with +0.2 percent. The Southwest continues to be a bright spot, with San Diego posting its eighth consecutive monthly increase, and Los Angeles and Phoenix both posting their seventh. Three of the markets – Charlotte, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years.

In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and December is now considered their current trough value, according to the data.

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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in 2Q 2009

MIAMI, Florida – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 23 percent in second quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 43,125 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 35,008 existing homes sold. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to FAR.

Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the second quarter rose 29 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the third consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.

Statewide sales activity in 2Q 2009 also increased over 1Q 2009’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 2Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 37.2 percent over the 1Q 2009 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 2Q 2009 increased 45.3 percent over the 1Q 2009 level.

“In spite of the challenges with the economy, most people – 83 percent – still believe that buying a home is a good financial decision, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR),” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM, CRE, a broker and director of investment sales with Colliers Arnold in Orlando. (CCIM stands for Certified Commercial Investment Member and CRE is the Counselor of Real Estate designation). “Many homebuyers are realizing that this is the time to buy – with a good selection of housing inventory, affordable pricing and low mortgage rates.

“In fact, three-fourths of those responding to the 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey said they think now is a good time to purchase a home, a number that has increased steadily the past two years,” she says. “However, providing solid financing options for homebuyers is key to returning stability to the housing market, and buyers also need programs that help with downpayment and closing costs. That’s why the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and other programs enabling eligible buyers to access that tax credit for downpayment or closing costs are so important – programs like the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program.”

MIAMI, Florida

Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the second quarter compared to the same three-month period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $143,600 in the second quarter; a year earlier, it was $203,200 for a decrease of 29 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-home median sales price was 1.8 percent higher than 1Q’s statewide existing-home median sales price of $141,000. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 14,742 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 11,459 in 2Q 2008 for a 29 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $111,100 for the three-month period; in 2Q 2008, it was $179,800 for a decrease of 38 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-condo median sales price was almost 1 percent higher 1Q’s statewide existing-condo median sales price of $110,100.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.03 percent in 2Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 6.09 percent.

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

You didn’t really lose in Miami's housing free fall / Miami Real Estate 305-929-DEAN

Miami, Florida – Stan Smith has some news for longtime homeowners having a pity party over falling house prices in South Florida: New research shows that current home values are just about where they would have been if the real-estate bubble had never inflated and burst.

A long-term view of the market reveals that, even though prices rose and fell dramatically in recent years, they appear to have settled back into historic patterns, according to an analysis by Smith, a University of Central Florida finance professor.

“Most homeowners are within 6 percent of where they would have been had there not been a bubble. The people who have been here since before 2005, they should not have been hurt,” Smith said, though he added: “... A lot of people did buy in 2005 and 2006, and obviously they have been hurt significantly.”

For about a quarter-century, starting in the late 1970s, home prices in Metropolitan Orlando increased 4.7 percent a year on average, according to Smith’s analysis of data from a federal housing-price index. Then the bubble emerged, with prices rising 20 percent in 2005 and 32 percent the following year. Homeowners were elated about their fast-growing equity – at least until the bubble burst in mid-2007.

The sharp drop in prices since then – 22 percent from the 2007 high – may have left the impression that the bursting bubble set back even long-term homeowners for many years to come. Yet prices now are about where you would have expected them to be had the dramatic rise and fall never occurred.

Steve Shapiro, who is trying to sell his Lake Mary home, hadn’t really thought about it before but said it makes sense that the price he is asking for his home of 10 years tracks the area’s long-term pricing trends.

“I think I’m about where it should be with the price,” said the retiree, who has listed his house for $269,000 with Exit Realty Central agent Julie Elrod-Boyd – the same agent who helped him buy it in 1999 for $161,000. He estimated the house would have sold for more than $300,000 about 18 months ago, so the price has retreated 10 percent since then.

“It was nice to think it was worth so much a year and a half ago, but I felt like it was a little inflated,” he said. “All the homes were.”

Volusia County Property Appraiser Morgan Gilreath has obtained results similar to Smith’s in his county.

Gilreath recently plotted home prices from 1996 to the present and concluded they are not far below where they would have been without the bubble. The mid-point, or median, for home prices in Volusia in May was $124,900 – down about $20,000 from where they would have been if they had continued on their long-range trajectory rather than inflating and deflating in recent years, he said.

A year ago, the median in Volusia was about $50,000 above the historic trend line, he said; two years ago, it was flying about $100,000 above that line.

Gilreath said his analysis was not as thorough as Smith’s research at UCF, but both indicate the residential market is not likely to decline much further.

“The point that the charts are telling us is that we’re close to where we think the bottom is going to be,” he said. “The question is: When is it going to turn around? I have evidence that it is turning around here [in Volusia].”

Smith said prices in the region may continue to fall but are less likely to do so now that they are so near the long-term trend line – a “positive indicator” for coming months.

Les Simmonds, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, said people generally measure their home’s current value against what it was worth a year ago – a short-term view of the market.” I feel strongly that, had we not had this bubble, that the median price of the properties would be a little better than they are now, because of the way they’ve been pushed down [in the post-bubble market] by ... [distressed] properties,” he said.

“I said to my wife last week that, when the market was really high, if we had sold then, we could have made four times what we paid for the house.” The problem, he added, is that most of the people who sold at the peak usually then bought near the top of the market. Shapiro said that, once he sells his Lake Mary house, he is ready to retire to a log cabin in north Georgia and forget about the whims of the real-estate market for a while.

The only thing that will rise and fall on his cabin, he said, will be the runners on his front-porch rocking chair.

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Friday, July 31, 2009

Reports show economy mending. Miami Florida Real Estate 800-819-5466

Miami Florida - Economic indicators keep saying what investors have known for months: Things are getting better.

The latest government report to reinforce a more positive view of the economy’s health was the Federal Reserve’s “beige book,” released Wednesday, which indicated many parts of the nation are seeing economic stability. Earlier in the day, President Obama told spectators at a town hall meeting in Raleigh, N.C., “We may be seeing the beginning of the end of the recession.”

And the July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index predicts the economy will grow October through December, the first increase since September 2008.

“The evidence (of recovery) is building every day,” says Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management. “It’s settling and gives people more faith in what they’ve seen” from stock and bond markets.

The reports echo what stock prices have been predicting since March. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has soared 44 percent from its March 9 low, despite falling 0.5 percent Wednesday.

While the latest pieces of economic data provide some comfort, they by no means signal a return to the boom times. Economic experts say they still are on the watch for information about:

• Clues on when a meaningful recovery is firmly underway. The beige book indicated the economy is still far from robust, because five of the Fed’s 12 regions – Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and Dallas – were “subdued” or “weak” and Minneapolis was faltering.

“There may be a bottom, but where’s the bounce?” says Doug Roberts of Channel Capital Research. “There’s still a significant level of weakness in the economy.”

• Signs of health in the commercial real estate market. The beige book sounded concerns about the demand for office buildings, retail space and manufacturing facilities, says John Canally of LPL Financial. The fact commercial real estate remains soft could be a sign that employment, too, will be weak until early 2010, he says.

• Evidence of the federal stimulus kicking in. Much of the future hinges on how stimulus spending steers the economy, Roberts says, which won’t be known until next year. Some additional clues, though, will be released this week with reports on jobless claims today and GDP on Friday.

“There’s a lot of information that supports the idea we’ve turned a corner,” Paulsen says. “But there’s still a lot of doubt.”

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Copyright © 2009 USA Today. All rights reserved.

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Monday, July 27, 2009

June new home sales rise 11 percent Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

Miami Florida Real Estate

WASHINGTON (AP) – New U.S. home sales rose by the largest amount in more than eight years last month, in another sign the housing market is finally bouncing back from the worst downturn in decades.

The Commerce Department said Monday that sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000.

It was the strongest sales pace since November 2008 and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 360,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in December 2000.

Sales have risen for three straight months. The median sales price of $206,200, however, was down 12 percent from $234,300 a year earlier and down nearly 6 percent from $219,000 in May.

The report is another encouraging sign that the beleaguered housing sector is finally coming back to life. Last Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reported that home resales posted a monthly increase of 3.6 percent in June.

There were 281,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, down more than 4 percent from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 8.8 months of supply — the lowest level since October 2007.

Fallout from the housing crisis has played a central role in the U.S. recession, now the longest since World War II. Foreclosures have spiked, homebuilders have slashed construction, and financial companies have lost billions.

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Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press, Alan Zibel, AP real estate writer.

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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Mortgage crisis cuts both ways Aventura Homes

South Florida Real Estate Information

MIAMI – Oct. 1, 2008 – She was only 21 when she decided to become a mortgage broker. A newlywed, Michelle LaPiana felt that her own broker had misled her and her husband during the daunting purchase of their first home in Hialeah.

She claims she fell prey to a bait and switch. The closing costs were nearly double what the couple previously had been told. By the time they sat with a title agent to sign the loan documents, it was too late to walk away without losing thousands of dollars.

“The closing costs were $9,680,” recalled LaPiana, now 38 and divorced. “I remember everything. I even remember my closing agent’s name.”

The incident angered her but also motivated her to help other people navigate the potentially treacherous process. A graduate of Hialeah-Miami Lakes High, she skipped college, got her license and launched what was a rewarding and successful career in mortgage lending.

Now, 17 years later, the former president of the Miami chapter of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers and once-ambitious subprime account executive finds herself broke and in foreclosure.

The single mother of two insists her story is not one of the recklessness, greed or fraud that has plagued the mortgage business and sparked the credit crisis on Wall Street.

Instead, she says, she is part of the damage left behind by an investment frenzy and a wave of opportunists who hijacked her profession and ran it in into the ground in just a few short years.

“I feel I was a victim, but I feel government is not going to help people like me,” LaPiana said.

LaPiana says she cannot find work in South Florida because of a new stigma attached to having worked in the world of subprime lending. Reports of felons having flooded the business during the boom years have not helped.

“They look at me as if ‘because of her this is why the economy is the way it is,’” LaPiana said.

The stigma may be worse in South Florida – often described as ground zero for subprime loans, or high-cost loans extended to borrowers with poor credit. Mortgages requiring no proof of income or assets were also widely sold. The high default rate among these loans is blamed for sparking the credit crunch that began a little over a year ago. Lenders began restricting access to credit to prevent future losses, leading to an economic slowdown.

But LaPiana says her role was less direct because she never sold a home to a borrower who couldn’t afford it.

Brian Kettenring, a head organizer with Florida ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, a national grass-roots community activist organization, agreed that many real estate professionals are being unfairly painted with the same brush.

“There was a fair amount of predatory lending by brokers and lenders, but there are a lot of good people who work in the industry and too many of them are being hurt in the destruction of the industry as a whole,” Kettenring said.

Wave of failures

The ripple effects of the credit crunch hit an apex in recent weeks with the failure of the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers; the near-collapse of American International Group, the world’s largest insurance company, and Washington Mutual’s seizure by federal regulators and subsequent sale in the biggest bank failures in U.S. history.

LaPiana said nobody foresaw the impending catastrophe from their respective corners. She views herself as among the tiniest of conduits in the vast matrix of players wheeling and dealing in the era of cheap money that made the housing boom possible.

After more than a decade of selling traditional mortgages, LaPiana was swept up in the excitement of new, innovative loans that made homeownership possible for millions of Americans.

In 2001, she joined Fieldstone Mortgage’s subprime division as a wholesale account executive. She would hold the same position at a string of other wholesalers over the next six years, specializing in high-cost and highly profitably subprime mortgages.

Wholesale lenders deal with mortgage companies and brokers who make their cash available to home buyers by immediately funding their loans. They do not deal with borrowers. Once the loans are brokered, the wholesalers, typically thinly capitalized companies, sell the debt to commercial banks, other lenders or investment houses, like former brokerage Bear Stearns.

“Subprime loans were the hot commodity of Wall Street. That’s all everybody wanted,” LaPiana said.

As an account executive, her job was visiting brokers and selling the loan programs offered by her company. Wholesalers generally compensate account executives based on the volume of business they bring to the company. For each million dollars LaPiana sold, she earned a half percentage point, or $5,000. In the peak years of the boom, she says she did an average of five deals a day. Sometimes, her biweekly paychecks topped $20,000.

“I still have the pay stubs,” LaPiana said ruefully, adding she couldn’t toss them because she hopes to once again earn such a handsome income.

The high life

With her new wealth, LaPiana traveled – skiing in Colorado and visiting New York City. She bought a top-of-the-line Jeep Commander and, after her divorce, a “dream home” in Kendall where she would live comfortably with her two girls and mother.

“I didn’t go overboard,” LaPiana insisted, “I didn’t buy the two investment properties, the two condos on the beach, but I should have saved more.”

Even though she was making almost $200,000 a year, her competitors, who sold loans requiring no proof of income or assets, were making more. LaPiana said many of the loans she sold didn’t ask for proof, but did require a borrower to submit evidence that they had filed an income tax return with the IRS as self-employed.

Such loans have been dubbed “liar loans” in the industry because of the high rate of fraud later found in mortgage applications when the homes went into foreclosure.

It was enough to give her competitors an edge. While LaPiana was pounding the pavements making sales to mortgage companies, many of her competitors were able to do most of their business by phone from their homes, she said.

The subprime lenders they worked for were also among the first to bite the dust when borrowers began defaulting in droves in 2007, she said. Soon LaPiana was jumping from job to job as four successive employers declared bankruptcy or closed their subprime divisions between 2006 and 2007.

Peter Ticktin, a Deerfield Beach lawyer who practices foreclosure defense, said the self-deluded industry imploded because it believed property values would continue rising, eliminating the risk of losses. “What was going on was a systematic Ponzi scheme,” Ticktin said. “It wasn’t where you had one main character organizing it. It wasn’t a conspiracy.”

The final insult

LaPiana’s last position was with the CIT Group, based in New York, which told its account executives last September they were out of a job.

“That one really hurt because it was like, ‘Where do you go from here?’ I realized there was a major problem. It all went rolling down,” she said.

Almost as fast as the subprime industry itself, LaPiana’s life went into a tailspin. She went from making great money to collecting unemployment. Her savings were eaten up by an expensive adjustable-rate loan, a car payment and the cost of supporting a family of four.

Her problems mounted as she struggled to find a job. In July, she woke up one morning and found her Jeep Commander missing from the driveway. It had been repossessed. “I knew it was going to happen,” she said. LaPiana made her last mortgage payment in May. The lenders are hounding her out of her half-million-dollar dream. She’s had to borrow money from friends.

“When your daughters ask you for money to go to the movies and you tell them . . . I can’t. …” LaPiana started to cry. “I have no insurance. I make my daughters drink their vitamins in the morning because they know they can’t get sick. I teach them how not to get sick.”

How does she cope with the stress?

“I smoke and drink a lot of coffee. I don’t sleep,” she said, wiping tears away.

Kettenring, of ACORN, said his organization was accepting applications for foreclosure prevention counselors at their South Florida office, and most were coming from former brokers.

“It’s incredible the number of people who are applying for those positions that have worked in the industry for years,” Kettering said, “We’re seeing the near total collapse of the housing industry including the employment of people who worked in the industry.”

Despite the trials, LaPiana hasn’t given up.

Described by her friends as a self-starter and a fighter, she recently got a license to sell insurance and is trying to build a book of business.

She still stays involved with mortgage lending, keeping up with new regulations. Her brokers license remains valid.

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Friday, December 29, 2006

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NAR: Pending home sales indicate market stabilization - Miami Real Estate

Miami Real Estate / Miami Realtor

WASHINGTON – Pending home sales are hovering in a narrow range, another indication that a stabilization is occurring in the housing sector, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).


The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in October, slipped 1.7 percent to a reading of 107.2 and is 13.2 percent lower than October 2005. The index had trended up from a cyclical low of 105.6 in July, and a decline from year-ago levels is narrowing. In September, the index was 13.6 percent below a year earlier, while in August the decline was 14.0 percent.


David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says a fairly steady pace of home sales can be expected for the next two months. “It’s important to focus on where the housing market is now – it appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high – they’ll stay that way through 2007,” he says. “In addition, a temporary correction in prices distracts from the fact that it is primarily the number of home sales that affects the economy, and the number for this year will be the third highest on record.”


The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed, but the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Miami Real Estate

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.


Regionally, the PHSI in the Midwest slipped 0.6 percent in October to 95.8 and was 15.4 percent below a year ago. The index in the South declined 1.7 percent to 122.9 and was 9.3 percent below October 2005. In the Northeast, the index eased 2.1 percent in October to 88.0 and was 13.5 percent lower than a year earlier. The index in the West fell 2.7 percent to 109.5 and was 17.4 percent below October 2005.

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