South Florida Home Prices Decline Slowly

South Florida Real Estate

Miami, Florida – Data through December 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell in the fourth quarter of 2009, but it has improved in its annual rate of return compared to third quarter reports.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 2.5 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2009 versus the fourth quarter of 2008. While down, it’s a significant improvement over the annual rates reported in the first, second and third quarters of the year, at -19.0 percent, -14.7 percent and -8.7 percent, respectively.

In December, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual declines of 2.4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. These two indices, which are reported monthly, have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month since the beginning of the year.

“As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the summer of 2009 has not been sustained,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

“In the most recent months, we are seeing fewer and fewer MSAs reporting monthly gains in prices. Only four cities saw month-to-month improvements in December over November when you look at the raw data. We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally-adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December. Similarly, the National Composite fell by 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, but rose by 1.6 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis.”

As of the 4th quarter of 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in the summer of 2003. The 4th quarter values fell when compared to the 3rd quarter; however, the decline in the annual rate of return has significantly improved.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to show improvement in their annual rates of return. In fact, all 20 metro areas and the two Composites saw improvement in their annual returns compared to November’s data. Only three cities – Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa – still showed double digit annual rates of decline as of the end of 2009. Miami, Phoenix and Seattle all moved above such rates with December’s report.

Looking at the monthly statistics, 15 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in December over November, with Chicago posting the sharpest decline, down 1.6 percent. Las Vegas finally posted its first positive print in more than three years, with +0.2 percent. The Southwest continues to be a bright spot, with San Diego posting its eighth consecutive monthly increase, and Los Angeles and Phoenix both posting their seventh. Three of the markets – Charlotte, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years.

In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and December is now considered their current trough value, according to the data.

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New rules curb closing surprises - Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

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McLEAN, Va. – Jan. 19, 2010 – Buying a home should be a joyful experience, but all too often, the mortgage settlement process leaves consumers confused, angry and paying more than they anticipated.

The reason? Closing costs and fees that are significantly higher than the lender’s original estimates. Borrowers find themselves faced with two unappealing choices: Pony up or walk away and start searching for another house.

Now, after years of wrestling with different factions of the mortgage industry, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has adopted rules designed to prevent last-minute closing surprises. The rules, which took effect Jan. 1, will reduce closing shocks and save homebuyers money, says Timothy Dwyer, CEO of Entitle Direct Group, a title insurance company. In addition, he says, “You’ll be better informed and educated.”

The biggest change involves the good faith estimate, the form lenders give consumers when they apply for a mortgage. The good faith estimate isn’t new, but in the past, the document wasn’t particularly helpful to consumers, says Sylvia Alayon, vice president of operations at the Consumer Mortgage Audit Center. What has changed:

Consistency. Lenders are now required to use a uniform three-page document when they give prospective borrowers a good faith estimate, says Vicki Bott, deputy assistant secretary for single-family housing at HUD.

Lenders also are required to provide the document within 72 hours after prospective borrowers apply for a loan.

This will allow consumers to figure out a loan’s total cost, including fees, and compare loan offers on an apples-to-apples basis, Bott says. “We encourage consumers to shop for the best rates and fees, and not just the best rate,” she says.

Transparency. Many borrowers who bought homes during the housing boom later discovered that their loans contained hidden bombs that made their mortgages unaffordable. The new good faith estimate requires lenders to disclose features that could drive up costs. For example, the document requires lenders to disclose whether your interest rate will rise – as would be the case with an adjustable-rate mortgage – and if so, by how much. Lenders will also be asked whether the loan includes balloon payments or imposes penalties for paying the loan off early.

“All of these are really important questions,” says Helene Raynaud, vice president of housing for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. “It will be able to raise red flags for consumers.”

Trade-offs. Some lenders offer borrowers a lower interest rate in exchange for higher upfront costs -- or vice versa. A new table in the good faith estimate (see box) helps borrowers compare how different interest rates and settlement charges will affect monthly payments.

Reliability. Lenders are required by law to give mortgage applicants a copy of their settlement costs, known as a HUD-1, at least one day before closing. In the past, though, many borrowers discovered that the costs shown on the HUD-1 bore little connection to those provided in the good faith estimate.

The new rules will make it much more difficult for lenders to depart from their good faith estimates, Bott says. The new HUD-1 includes a line-by-line comparison to the good faith estimate, making it easy to identify any change in costs.

Lenders are prohibited from increasing costs they control, such as origination and processing fees. Fees for third-party services, such as appraisals and title insurance, can increase no more than 10% from those provided in the good faith estimate, as long as the borrowers use providers selected by the lender. The limit doesn’t apply if borrowers select their own third-party providers.

Other costs that aren’t subject to the 10% limit include the initial deposit for the borrower’s escrow account, daily interest charges and homeowner’s insurance.

HUD has published a guide for homebuyers, Shopping for Your Home Loan: HUD’s Settlement Cost Booklet. You can find it at www.hud.gov

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Only 8,405 in Fla. get mortgage modification.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Jan. 18, 2010 – Fewer than 3,000 South Floridians have a permanent loan modification under President Obama’s nearly year-old program to stem home foreclosures.

In the Treasure Coast, just 111 troubled borrowers have seen permanent relief from the $75 billion plan announced in February.

The dismal performance of the program marketed as a helping hand for the nation’s more than 3.3 million delinquent home loans was released Friday in a Treasury Department progress report.

Throughout Florida, which by every measure is one of the states hardest hit by the real estate crash, there are 8,405 permanent modifications. In Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties combined there are 2,987 permanent modifications.

Another 96,703 Florida loans are on trial modifications.

The Making Homes Affordable program gives incentives to banks to modify loans in three basic ways; reducing interest rates to as low as 2 percent, increasing the life of the loan, and reducing the principal owed on the loan.

“You keep hearing about this wonderful program the government is doing but it’s not working,” said Joel Bienvenu, who owns a home west of Boca Raton and has been trying to get a loan modification through Wells Fargo since August. “I keep getting excuses that they are just overwhelmed.”

Nationwide, 66,465 permanent modifications have been approved, less than 2 percent of the total loans that are 60 or more days delinquent. Another 46,056 permanent modifications have been approved by the lender, but not yet by the borrower.

The median monthly decrease to mortgages that received permanent modifications was $516, according to the Treasury Department.

From the beginning of the program, homeowners have complained about having to send lenders the same paperwork multiple times, while banks say borrowers provide the wrong documents or fail to meet the requirements for the permanent modification.

Anthony DiMarco, executive vice president of government affairs for the Florida Bankers Association, said Friday that lenders have been on a learning curve, but are improving.

“I think the industry is working hard,” he said. “You can’t ramp up a program like this overnight.”

Fort Lauderdale real estate attorney and foreclosure mediator Shari Olefson said the more than 1.1 million trial modifications offered to borrowers nationwide shows lenders are making an effort.

The fact that just 66,465 have become permanent points to a fundamental problem with the program, she said.

“The program itself is a failure,” said Olefson, author of Foreclosure Nation, Mortgaging the American Dream. “It’s trying to put a square peg in a round hole.”

To qualify for a modification, a person’s monthly housing expenses must be more than 31 percent of gross monthly income. But you also must prove that you can pay for the modification.

Olefson believes high unemployment and a steep loss in housing equity is keeping the plan from working.

“The whole program was crafted before we correctly identified the problem,” she said.

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Fed again pledges to hold rates at record-lows. Great for Real Estate

Sunny Isles Beach Real Estate

The Federal Reserve pledged Wednesday to keep a key interest rate at a record low for an “extended period,” signaling that the weak economy remains dependent on government help to grow.

The Fed said economic activity has “continued to pick up” and that the housing market has strengthened – a key ingredient for a sustained recovery.

But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues warned that rising joblessness and tight credit for many people and companies could restrain the rebound in the months ahead.

“Economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” they said.

Against that backdrop, the Fed kept the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And it made no major changes to a program to help drive down mortgage rates.

Commercial banks’ prime lending rate, used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will remain about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

Still, some credit card rates have risen over the past several months. In part, that reflects rate increases by lenders in response to escalating defaults on credit card loans. Lenders also pushed through increases before a new law clamping down on sudden rate hikes for credit card customers takes effect early next year.

On Capitol Hill, the House voted Wednesday to accelerate the enactment date of the new rules to protect consumers from many such surprise changes. Credit card companies would have to comply immediately, rather than starting in February, unless they agreed to freeze interest rates and fees. But the proposal’s chances in the Senate are considered dim.

The average rate nationwide on a variable-rate credit card is 11.5 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Lenders charge more and credit card customers pay rates higher than the prime because the debt they run up is riskier.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average at first held onto an increase of more than 100 points after the Fed’s announcement. But stocks eventually gave up most of their gains in a late-day slump. It wasn’t clear how much of a role the Fed’s statement played. Some analysts noted that investors are nervous as the release of the government’s October jobs report on Friday approaches.

In normal times, the Fed controls only short-term rates. But after the financial crisis erupted, the Fed began buying longer-term Treasuries. Its purchases kept those rates lower than they’d otherwise be.

This is good news for borrowers with auto loans, some student loans, 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and some adjustable-rate mortgages. But it hurts savers and people dependent on fixed incomes who would normally be enjoying higher yields.

On Wednesday, the Fed stuck with its pledge to keep rates at “exceptionally low” levels for “an extended period.” Most analysts don’t think the Fed would begin to boost rates until next spring or summer.

Fed policymakers “believe they need to keep rates low to ensure that the recovery doesn’t falter,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The central bank hopes low rates will encourage consumers and businesses to boost spending, which would invigorate the recovery. The Fed signaled that it can continue to hold rates low because inflation is all but nonexistent.

The Fed has now entered a new phase: Managing the recovery rather than fighting the worst recession and financial crisis to hit the country since the Great Depression.

The economy began growing again last quarter for the first time in more than a year. But much of that growth came from government-supported spending on homes and cars. The strength and staying power of the recovery are uncertain, especially once government supports are removed.

In such a fragile recovery, a rate increase by the Fed is unlikely anytime soon, said Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“Growth does not mean a rate hike,” Rupkey said.

As with past rebounds, the budding recovery won’t likely stop the unemployment rate from rising. The rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent, is expected to hit 9.9 percent on Friday, when the government releases the unemployment report for October. The jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining, analysts said.

At some point, once the recovery is firmly rooted, the Fed is likely to start signaling that higher rates are coming. One hint of an eventual rate hike would be the Fed’s changing or dropping its pledge to hold rates at record-low levels for an “extended period.”

It’s a delicate task. Boosting rates and removing supports too soon could short-circuit the recovery. On the other hand, holding rates low and keeping government supports intact too long could unleash inflation.

Though it didn’t change a program to help drive down mortgage rates, the Fed did say it will trim its purchases of debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $175 billion, from $200 billion, because the supply of that debt has declined.

At its previous meeting in late September, the Fed agreed to slow the pace of a $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It decided to wrap up the purchases by the end of March instead of at year-end. So far, the Fed has bought $776 billion of the mortgage securities.

Its efforts to lower mortgage rates are paying off. Rates on 30-year loans averaged 5.03 percent, Freddie Mac reported last week. That’s down from 6.46 percent last year.

Though the Fed will slow its purchases of mortgage securities, rates for home loans should remain low – in the 5 percent range – as long as the purchases continue, analysts say.

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Outlook for 2009 Miami Real Estate: It’s a buyer’s market !

Miami Real Estate - Now's the time to buy.

What’s the outlook for 2009? Florida Realtors® agree that it’s a buyer’s market! With lower prices and strong pent-up demand, Florida homes are highly attractive – especially to first-time and move-up buyers. Meanwhile, vacation residences continue to be warm-weather bargains to U.S. and international buyers.

Outlook for 2009: It’s a buyer’s market!
“We expect first-time homebuyers will be the largest segment next year,” says Ed Forman, president Watson Realty Corp., Jacksonville. “That includes a high percentage of single women buying their first property.”

The same pricing dynamics benefit working-age families in their 30s and 40s who may be moving into a starter home or looking for a move-up with more space for children, according to Mike Pappas, president and CEO, The Keyes Company, Miami. “For these buyers in particular, lower pricing is making Florida homes very attractive,” he says.

In many Florida markets, affluent buyers are picking up luxury properties as primary residences or second-homes – a trend likely to continue. “The high end of the Florida market has held up quite well,” says Brad Hunter, director, South Florida region, MetroStudy in Boca Raton.

International buyers remain an important component of the state’s market, especially in coastal areas like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Naples and Sarasota, as well as Orlando/Kissimmee. Florida Association of Realtors research studies show buyers from Canada, United Kingdom, Mexico, South America and Europe generate more than 15 percent of residential transactions.

On the other hand, the traditional flow of retiree buyers to Florida remains uncertain in the year ahead. Slower economic conditions in the Northeast and Midwest – two prime feeder markets for Florida – may make it harder for retirees with modest incomes to make the big move to Florida. Many retirees are also faced with less purchasing power due to declines in their investment portfolio and may opt to stay put. However, the number of Baby Boomers reaching age 65 continues to increase and many of these prospective buyers will be considering Florida when the nation’s economic condition improves.

Market watch perspectives
If the opportunities for great value and investment potential are presented, will buyers hop the fence and buy? Experts weigh in.

Use these Web sites to get local stats and build your own market watch for prospective buyers and sellers.

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First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit May Be Extended. Aventura Real Estate 800-819-5466

Aventura Real Estate - Miami Florida -

The current $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers is scheduled to end on November 30, 2009. An amendment to expand the tax credit, sponsored by Sen. Johnny Isakson of Georgia, is expected to be attached to a Senate bill extending unemployment compensation.

The new version would allow all home buyers -- not just first-time buyers -- who earn less than $150,000 as individuals and $300,000 as married couples to receive a tax credit up to $8,000. The cost of the new version of the tax credit is nearly $17 billion. The new tax credit would run through June 30, 2010.

However, shortly before we went to press, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan told the Senate Banking Committee that the White House hadn't make a decision about extending the tax credit and was looking at the costs.

In the meantime, home buyers continue to ask a lot of questions about how to apply the current tax credit.

Q: My daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, has lived in a foreign country for the past 23 years. So one could say her primary residence is not in the U.S. She and her husband recently purchased a home in the U.S. that will be used as a rental property. Will she be able to claim the first time home buyer tax credit?

A: Unfortunately, the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit (in its current incarnation) is only available for individuals who have not owned a home during the last three years and intend on using the purchased home as a primary residence.

Since your daughter intends on using the home as a rental, it will not qualify for the tax credit.

By the way, although the $8,000 tax credit has not yet been extended beyond its current sunset date of November 30, the new version being proposed does not provide a tax credit for investment property. It is only for those who are buying a home to live in.

Q: The closing on my house will occur at the end of October or the beginning of November. I should be eligible for the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

But here's the wrinkle: I will be inheriting a house in November when my father's estate comes out of probate. Will that make me ineligible for the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit? I plan to live in the house that I am purchasing.

A: The rules relating to the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit require you to be a first-time home buyer by the date of the closing. If you close on your home at the end of October and at that time qualify for the tax credit, you shouldn't have to worry about whether you're inheriting a house the following month. You need only comply with the other requirements.

To qualify for the tax credit, you must not have owned a home during the three years prior to the closing. You must live in the home you buy for three years and must use it as your primary residence.

Your modified adjusted gross income may not exceed $75,000 for single people and $150,000 for married couples. Above those numbers, the tax credit phases out. (Your adjusted gross income is basically what you would see at the bottom of the first page of your federal income tax return.)

To get the full benefit of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, the sales price of the home must be at least $80,000. The tax credit equals 10 percent of the purchase price of the home, up to a maximum of $8,000.

Most importantly, you must close on the purchase of your new primary residence no later than November 30, 2009.

There are other rules that provide that the home must be located in the United States. Non-resident aliens are ineligible to obtain the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and you can't buy the home from a close relative.

In answer to your question, if you inherit the home after you close on your primary residence, you should still be entitled to keep the tax credit as long as you live in the home you purchased for at least three years.

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When will Miami Real Estate prices bottom out ?

Miami Real Estate Deals – Housing prices will hit bottom in the fourth quarter of 2009, predicts Moody’s Economy.com in a new report.

“Despite the darkening national economic outlook and the weak conditions in the housing market, some positive signs give hope that a bottom in the housing market is coming into view,” the report says.

On average, home prices will decline 36 percent from the peak in the first quarter of 2006, the report says.

By the end of the housing downturn, nearly 62 percent of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas will have experienced double-digit-percent declines in house prices, peak-to-trough, says the report.

The declines will exceed 20 percent in about 100 metro areas, according to the report, and the recovery will be “lackluster.”

“A number of uncertainties in both the housing and economic outlooks remain, and the risks tilt to the downside,” says Moody’s Economy.com Chief Economist, Mark Zandi.

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NAR: Pending home sales surged 7.4% in August

Miami Real Estate Information

WASHINGTON – Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability.

“What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region,” Yun says. “It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales.”

The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.

Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he says. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”

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He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun says.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., says despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “Mortgages have been harder to find, and availability and terms vary depending on credit score and location, but Realtors can help buyers find reputable lenders while helping them navigate the transaction process,” he says. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit.”

Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.

Miami Real Estate Information

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.

New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.

The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0percent in 2009.

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NAR: Pending home sales indicate market stabilization - Miami Real Estate

Miami Real Estate / Miami Realtor

WASHINGTON – Pending home sales are hovering in a narrow range, another indication that a stabilization is occurring in the housing sector, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).


The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in October, slipped 1.7 percent to a reading of 107.2 and is 13.2 percent lower than October 2005. The index had trended up from a cyclical low of 105.6 in July, and a decline from year-ago levels is narrowing. In September, the index was 13.6 percent below a year earlier, while in August the decline was 14.0 percent.


David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says a fairly steady pace of home sales can be expected for the next two months. “It’s important to focus on where the housing market is now – it appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high – they’ll stay that way through 2007,” he says. “In addition, a temporary correction in prices distracts from the fact that it is primarily the number of home sales that affects the economy, and the number for this year will be the third highest on record.”


The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed, but the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Miami Real Estate

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.


Regionally, the PHSI in the Midwest slipped 0.6 percent in October to 95.8 and was 15.4 percent below a year ago. The index in the South declined 1.7 percent to 122.9 and was 9.3 percent below October 2005. In the Northeast, the index eased 2.1 percent in October to 88.0 and was 13.5 percent lower than a year earlier. The index in the West fell 2.7 percent to 109.5 and was 17.4 percent below October 2005.

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