Consumer Confidence Index climbs in Jan. Florida Real Estate

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Americans’ confidence in the economy improved modestly in January for the third straight month, as they begin to feel slightly better about business conditions and the job picture, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 55.9 – the highest in more than a year but still relatively gloomy. That compares with 53.6 in December.

January’s index was better than the expected 53.5 forecast by economists.

Economists watch confidence numbers closely because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. It takes a reading of 90 to indicate an economy on solid footing and 100 or more to indicate growth.

The new figures still don’t point to an end to the nation’s economic woes any time soon.

“Consumers’ short-term outlook, while moderately more positive, does not suggest any significant pickup in activity in the coming months,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

Tuesday’s figures are based on a survey of 5,000 households by the private research group.

Capital Economics analyst Paul Dales said Americans’ sentiments are well below the Index’s historic average of 95.

“In other words, despite the fact the economy probably grew at an annualized rate in excess of 5 percent in the fourth quarter, the labor market appears to be on the cusp of generating net employment gains, interest rates are at record lows and the rally in equities remains largely intact, confidence remains incredibly depressed,” Dales wrote in a research note. “This all suggests the legacy of the recession will live long in the mindset of consumers.”

While consumers were less dire about their income prospects, “(the number of) pessimists continues to outnumber the optimists,” Franco said.

Job security is a vital part of how Americans view the economy. Those who feel better about their jobs feel more comfortable spending money, which in turn fuels the nation’s economy. That means without a meaningful and steady increase in Americans’ faith that their paychecks will keep coming, and in turn a pickup in spending, there’s unlikely to be any strong revival in the economy.

“Without a sustained acceleration in consumption growth, the overall economic recovery is doomed to disappoint,” Dales wrote.

The unemployment rate held steady in December at 10 percent, down slightly from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October. Some analysts worry it will start climbing again in coming months, and could even rise as high as 10.5 percent next summer.

The Consumer Confidence index hit a historic low of 25.3 in February after registering 37.4 last January and enjoyed a three-month climb from March through May, fueled by signs that the economy might be stabilizing.

Since June, it has bounced along anemically between 47 and 55 as rising unemployment has taken a toll.

Also Tuesday, a report showed that The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index rose for in November – its sixth straight month of increases. And 14 of 20 metro areas posted improvements from the month before.

That index is now up 3.4 percent from its bottom in May, but still 30 percent below its peak in May 2006.

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New rules curb closing surprises - Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

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McLEAN, Va. – Jan. 19, 2010 – Buying a home should be a joyful experience, but all too often, the mortgage settlement process leaves consumers confused, angry and paying more than they anticipated.

The reason? Closing costs and fees that are significantly higher than the lender’s original estimates. Borrowers find themselves faced with two unappealing choices: Pony up or walk away and start searching for another house.

Now, after years of wrestling with different factions of the mortgage industry, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has adopted rules designed to prevent last-minute closing surprises. The rules, which took effect Jan. 1, will reduce closing shocks and save homebuyers money, says Timothy Dwyer, CEO of Entitle Direct Group, a title insurance company. In addition, he says, “You’ll be better informed and educated.”

The biggest change involves the good faith estimate, the form lenders give consumers when they apply for a mortgage. The good faith estimate isn’t new, but in the past, the document wasn’t particularly helpful to consumers, says Sylvia Alayon, vice president of operations at the Consumer Mortgage Audit Center. What has changed:

Consistency. Lenders are now required to use a uniform three-page document when they give prospective borrowers a good faith estimate, says Vicki Bott, deputy assistant secretary for single-family housing at HUD.

Lenders also are required to provide the document within 72 hours after prospective borrowers apply for a loan.

This will allow consumers to figure out a loan’s total cost, including fees, and compare loan offers on an apples-to-apples basis, Bott says. “We encourage consumers to shop for the best rates and fees, and not just the best rate,” she says.

Transparency. Many borrowers who bought homes during the housing boom later discovered that their loans contained hidden bombs that made their mortgages unaffordable. The new good faith estimate requires lenders to disclose features that could drive up costs. For example, the document requires lenders to disclose whether your interest rate will rise – as would be the case with an adjustable-rate mortgage – and if so, by how much. Lenders will also be asked whether the loan includes balloon payments or imposes penalties for paying the loan off early.

“All of these are really important questions,” says Helene Raynaud, vice president of housing for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. “It will be able to raise red flags for consumers.”

Trade-offs. Some lenders offer borrowers a lower interest rate in exchange for higher upfront costs -- or vice versa. A new table in the good faith estimate (see box) helps borrowers compare how different interest rates and settlement charges will affect monthly payments.

Reliability. Lenders are required by law to give mortgage applicants a copy of their settlement costs, known as a HUD-1, at least one day before closing. In the past, though, many borrowers discovered that the costs shown on the HUD-1 bore little connection to those provided in the good faith estimate.

The new rules will make it much more difficult for lenders to depart from their good faith estimates, Bott says. The new HUD-1 includes a line-by-line comparison to the good faith estimate, making it easy to identify any change in costs.

Lenders are prohibited from increasing costs they control, such as origination and processing fees. Fees for third-party services, such as appraisals and title insurance, can increase no more than 10% from those provided in the good faith estimate, as long as the borrowers use providers selected by the lender. The limit doesn’t apply if borrowers select their own third-party providers.

Other costs that aren’t subject to the 10% limit include the initial deposit for the borrower’s escrow account, daily interest charges and homeowner’s insurance.

HUD has published a guide for homebuyers, Shopping for Your Home Loan: HUD’s Settlement Cost Booklet. You can find it at www.hud.gov

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Foreclosures hitting more people with good credit. Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

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The foreclosure crisis likely will persist well into next year as high unemployment pushes more people out of homes, pulls down housing prices and raises concerns about the broader economic recovery.

The latest evidence was a report Thursday that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure. That’s a shift from last year, when riskier subprime loans drove the housing crisis.

The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. It was a record-high figure for the ninth straight quarter.

The data suggest the housing market and the broader recovery will remain under pressure from the surge in home-loan defaults, especially as unemployment keeps rising. Lost jobs are the main reason homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages.

After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. That lifted hopes for the overall economy. But analysts say there are too many foreclosed homes that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.

Among states, the worst damage is still concentrated in the states hardest hit from the start: Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona. Together, they accounted for 43 percent of new foreclosures.

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One in four mortgages in Florida were either past due or in foreclosure, the most in the U.S. Nevada was close behind at 23 percent.

“There’s no indication in this data that foreclosures are going to abate anytime soon,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, who projects that nationwide home prices will fall up to 10 percent before bottoming next fall.

Driven by rising unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans to borrowers with good credit accounted for nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with 21 percent a year ago.

Many laid-off homeowners might be able to survive on their savings for a while, but “the longer the economic situation stays in place, the less likely they are to hold on,” said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

In markets where foreclosures already are high and still rising, prices likely will remain soft. That will cause developers to keep their bulldozers idle and prevent the industry from making a big contribution to the economy’s recovery.

“Builders only start homes when they can make money,” said John Burns, an Irvine, Calif.-based real estate consultant. “In a lot of areas, until prices go back up, construction doesn’t make any sense.”

The crisis has struck people like Betty Wilson of San Diego. She was laid off a year ago from her job at an insurance company.

Since then, Wilson has managed to pay her $1,090 mortgage bill from collecting unemployment benefits, renting out a room and dipping into savings. But money is running low. She fears she won’t make her payment for December.

Wilson, 56, said she has tried to get her mortgage company, GMAC Mortgage, to lower her 6.25 percent interest rate or give her a temporary break from payments. Many mortgage companies will let a borrower skip up to six months of payments, though they require that the money be paid back eventually.

After The Associated Press inquired about her case, a GMAC spokeswoman said Thursday that the company would offer Wilson reduced payments for four months, “while we continue to review her financials for a permanent solution.”

After a typical recession, foreclosures peak about six months after the unemployment rate does. But the process could take longer this time, in part because loan-modification programs and new state laws have prolonged the process. Unemployment, now at 10.2 percent, isn’t expected to peak until next spring or summer.

Another unknown is the effectiveness of the Obama administration plan to attack the foreclosure crisis. As of last month, about 20 percent of eligible borrowers, or more than 650,000 people, had signed up. But most of those enrolled have been chosen for trials lasting up to five months.

About 4 million homeowners were either in foreclosure or at least three months behind on their mortgage payments as of September, according to the mortgage bankers group. Even if some of them manage to stay in their homes, the market is likely to absorb a wave of new foreclosures. Those properties are concentrated in states like Florida and other already beleaguered areas.

Subprime loans with adjustable rates have fallen to 16 percent of new foreclosures, from 35 percent a year earlier. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration also show rising signs of trouble. More than 18 percent of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s quarterly survey of 44.6 million loans is considered the most authoritative report on mortgage delinquencies. A separate report, issued monthly by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc., is based on courthouse filings.

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Forecast hopeful with first-time homebuyers leading the way. Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

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Aided by the homebuyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

“Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”

The 2009 National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shows that first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw-down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun says.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for homebuyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year, and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing,” Yun says. “With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010, but with wide geographic differences.”

He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8 percent in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun says. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4 percent this year, then rising 1.6 percent in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year.

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Fed again pledges to hold rates at record-lows. Great for Real Estate

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The Federal Reserve pledged Wednesday to keep a key interest rate at a record low for an “extended period,” signaling that the weak economy remains dependent on government help to grow.

The Fed said economic activity has “continued to pick up” and that the housing market has strengthened – a key ingredient for a sustained recovery.

But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues warned that rising joblessness and tight credit for many people and companies could restrain the rebound in the months ahead.

“Economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” they said.

Against that backdrop, the Fed kept the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And it made no major changes to a program to help drive down mortgage rates.

Commercial banks’ prime lending rate, used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will remain about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

Still, some credit card rates have risen over the past several months. In part, that reflects rate increases by lenders in response to escalating defaults on credit card loans. Lenders also pushed through increases before a new law clamping down on sudden rate hikes for credit card customers takes effect early next year.

On Capitol Hill, the House voted Wednesday to accelerate the enactment date of the new rules to protect consumers from many such surprise changes. Credit card companies would have to comply immediately, rather than starting in February, unless they agreed to freeze interest rates and fees. But the proposal’s chances in the Senate are considered dim.

The average rate nationwide on a variable-rate credit card is 11.5 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Lenders charge more and credit card customers pay rates higher than the prime because the debt they run up is riskier.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average at first held onto an increase of more than 100 points after the Fed’s announcement. But stocks eventually gave up most of their gains in a late-day slump. It wasn’t clear how much of a role the Fed’s statement played. Some analysts noted that investors are nervous as the release of the government’s October jobs report on Friday approaches.

In normal times, the Fed controls only short-term rates. But after the financial crisis erupted, the Fed began buying longer-term Treasuries. Its purchases kept those rates lower than they’d otherwise be.

This is good news for borrowers with auto loans, some student loans, 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and some adjustable-rate mortgages. But it hurts savers and people dependent on fixed incomes who would normally be enjoying higher yields.

On Wednesday, the Fed stuck with its pledge to keep rates at “exceptionally low” levels for “an extended period.” Most analysts don’t think the Fed would begin to boost rates until next spring or summer.

Fed policymakers “believe they need to keep rates low to ensure that the recovery doesn’t falter,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The central bank hopes low rates will encourage consumers and businesses to boost spending, which would invigorate the recovery. The Fed signaled that it can continue to hold rates low because inflation is all but nonexistent.

The Fed has now entered a new phase: Managing the recovery rather than fighting the worst recession and financial crisis to hit the country since the Great Depression.

The economy began growing again last quarter for the first time in more than a year. But much of that growth came from government-supported spending on homes and cars. The strength and staying power of the recovery are uncertain, especially once government supports are removed.

In such a fragile recovery, a rate increase by the Fed is unlikely anytime soon, said Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“Growth does not mean a rate hike,” Rupkey said.

As with past rebounds, the budding recovery won’t likely stop the unemployment rate from rising. The rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent, is expected to hit 9.9 percent on Friday, when the government releases the unemployment report for October. The jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining, analysts said.

At some point, once the recovery is firmly rooted, the Fed is likely to start signaling that higher rates are coming. One hint of an eventual rate hike would be the Fed’s changing or dropping its pledge to hold rates at record-low levels for an “extended period.”

It’s a delicate task. Boosting rates and removing supports too soon could short-circuit the recovery. On the other hand, holding rates low and keeping government supports intact too long could unleash inflation.

Though it didn’t change a program to help drive down mortgage rates, the Fed did say it will trim its purchases of debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $175 billion, from $200 billion, because the supply of that debt has declined.

At its previous meeting in late September, the Fed agreed to slow the pace of a $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It decided to wrap up the purchases by the end of March instead of at year-end. So far, the Fed has bought $776 billion of the mortgage securities.

Its efforts to lower mortgage rates are paying off. Rates on 30-year loans averaged 5.03 percent, Freddie Mac reported last week. That’s down from 6.46 percent last year.

Though the Fed will slow its purchases of mortgage securities, rates for home loans should remain low – in the 5 percent range – as long as the purchases continue, analysts say.

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Aventura Real Estate - Feds: More than 100 arrested for mortgage fraud.

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A federal prosecutor says a crackdown on organized mortgage fraud this year has yielded 105 arrests from Jacksonville to Fort Myers.

A. Brian Albritton, the U.S. attorney for Florida’s middle district, announced the results of the nine-month investigation at news conferences Tuesday in Fort Myers and Tampa.

Albritton said the fraudulent loans totaled more than $400 million and involved more than 700 properties.

Defendants include mortgage brokers, real estate agents, lenders, sellers and buyers. Albritton called the problem an “epidemic.”

Florida’s middle district includes a swath that extends from Jacksonville to Fort Myers and includes the Orlando and Tampa areas.

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Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in 2Q 2009

MIAMI, Florida – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 23 percent in second quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 43,125 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 35,008 existing homes sold. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to FAR.

Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the second quarter rose 29 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the third consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.

Statewide sales activity in 2Q 2009 also increased over 1Q 2009’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 2Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 37.2 percent over the 1Q 2009 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 2Q 2009 increased 45.3 percent over the 1Q 2009 level.

“In spite of the challenges with the economy, most people – 83 percent – still believe that buying a home is a good financial decision, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR),” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM, CRE, a broker and director of investment sales with Colliers Arnold in Orlando. (CCIM stands for Certified Commercial Investment Member and CRE is the Counselor of Real Estate designation). “Many homebuyers are realizing that this is the time to buy – with a good selection of housing inventory, affordable pricing and low mortgage rates.

“In fact, three-fourths of those responding to the 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey said they think now is a good time to purchase a home, a number that has increased steadily the past two years,” she says. “However, providing solid financing options for homebuyers is key to returning stability to the housing market, and buyers also need programs that help with downpayment and closing costs. That’s why the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and other programs enabling eligible buyers to access that tax credit for downpayment or closing costs are so important – programs like the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program.”

MIAMI, Florida –

Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the second quarter compared to the same three-month period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $143,600 in the second quarter; a year earlier, it was $203,200 for a decrease of 29 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-home median sales price was 1.8 percent higher than 1Q’s statewide existing-home median sales price of $141,000. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 14,742 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 11,459 in 2Q 2008 for a 29 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $111,100 for the three-month period; in 2Q 2008, it was $179,800 for a decrease of 38 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-condo median sales price was almost 1 percent higher 1Q’s statewide existing-condo median sales price of $110,100.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.03 percent in 2Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 6.09 percent.

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Details of FHA’s $8K downpayment advance released

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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released more details today about its program to help first-time homebuyers use a tax credit as part of a downpayment.

HUD announced the program on May 12 at the National Association of Realtors® Housing Summit. In the interim, HUD posted an announcement and then immediately took it down, leading to speculation that the program would be pulled. In response, HUD said the rules had simply not been finalized, and the original announcement had been posted in error.

“We’ve been eager for word from the federal government since the new FHA downpayment assistance plan was announced, and even more so after the program details were first published and then quickly pulled,” says John Sebree, FAR vice president of public policy. “Luckily, that turns out to be a minor setback and there will be a federal downpayment program to complement the $30 million we were successful in securing in the Florida budget.”

The most significant change involves the amount of downpayment required by qualified first-time homebuyers. FHA mortgages require a 3.5 percent downpayment, and the $8,000 tax credit cannot be used to override that requirement. Once the 3.5 percent downpayment requirement has been met, however, the tax credit can be applied to additional costs, including a higher downpayment, paying points to lower the mortgage rate, and/or closing costs. Lenders will treat the tax credit money as a second lien on the home until it’s paid back.

“Mortgage industry leaders have indicated that this type of product may not be immediately available to consumers,” says Sebree. Since lenders will oversee the tax credit loan, they must create internal programs to handle the process.

Lenders have some flexibility on payback requirements for the upfront loan of the tax credit, though HUD also created rules to protect homebuyers from onerous terms.

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Foreclosures drove up 2008 U.S. home sales

Miami Real Estate – Foreclosures drove U.S. home sales up 7 percent in 2008 after a 40 percent plunge the prior year, with eligible buyers lured by deep discounts and low loan rates, according to real estate data company Radar Logic.

So-called “motivated sales,” or foreclosed houses sold at auctions or by financial institutions, surged 177 percent last year while all other sales in the 25 metro areas tracked by Radar Logic fell by 17 percent.

“The market seems to have migrated to the point where motivated sales have become a far more constant part of the housing sales market,” Michael Feder, chief executive of Radar Logic, told Reuters.

These distressed transactions represented as much as a third of all activity last year, he said.

The housing market has swooned from 2006 record highs, glutted with unsold homes, including foreclosed properties and empty new construction.

“Buyers recognize that those are at significant discounts versus what all other people are asking for homes and are migrating to those first,” Feder said. Ultimately, that could be a positive for housing, suggesting there is a price point that has been reached that is attracting buyers, he added.

Prices sank in all 25 metro areas, pushing the Radar Logic composite index down 22 percent for the year.

The biggest sales gains were in areas with the largest annual price declines: California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

In California, motivated sales accounted for 47 percent of total sales in December, up from 23 percent a year earlier, based on Radar Logic data.

Falling mortgage rates bolstered sales, with Freddie Mac’s 5.1 percent average 30-year rate in December the lowest since the home funding company started keeping records in 1971.

Lower mortgage rates curb monthly payments, but do little to help potential owners come up with the increasingly large down payments that lenders require, Feder noted.

There is reason for optimism that President Barack Obama’s $275 billion home stability program will kick-start the worst housing market downturn since the Great Depression, though a dearth of specific details makes it unlikely a turnaround will be swift, Feder said.

The program aims to reduce foreclosures and press mortgage rates down.

In the latest sign of housing sickness, pending sales of existing homes slid sharply in January as the recession deterred buyers, based on a National Association of Realtors index that fell to a record low. The measure, based on contracts signed in January, tumbled 7.7 percent to 80.4, the lowest since the trade group started the series in 2001.

Feder contends that three major problems still darken the picture: the oversupply of unsold homes, restrictive access to mortgage credit and reticence of non-distressed home sellers to slash their asking prices.

“We get a turnaround in all three of those and I think we’ll have a housing recovery,” he said.

Access to mortgage money remains limited, with lenders battered by record foreclosures stemming from years of looser lending practices.

“We hear anecdotally that there are a lot of deals that are cut, but then buyers can’t get mortgages for more than 60 percent of the purchase prices, even though it’s at this ‘motivated’ price level,” Feder said.

“The mortgage money simply isn’t providing the capital necessary,” he added. “If the stimulus package begins to help make mortgage money available at numbers more like 80 to 85 percent loan to value, that’s going top help a lot.”

House prices are unlikely to rise before the supply imbalance improves.

To get that, “We’re going to need to have some balance between the absorption of motivated sales and a capitulation by non-motivated sellers to the new price levels,” Feder said.

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When will Miami Real Estate prices bottom out ?

Miami Real Estate Deals – Housing prices will hit bottom in the fourth quarter of 2009, predicts Moody’s Economy.com in a new report.

“Despite the darkening national economic outlook and the weak conditions in the housing market, some positive signs give hope that a bottom in the housing market is coming into view,” the report says.

On average, home prices will decline 36 percent from the peak in the first quarter of 2006, the report says.

By the end of the housing downturn, nearly 62 percent of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas will have experienced double-digit-percent declines in house prices, peak-to-trough, says the report.

The declines will exceed 20 percent in about 100 metro areas, according to the report, and the recovery will be “lackluster.”

“A number of uncertainties in both the housing and economic outlooks remain, and the risks tilt to the downside,” says Moody’s Economy.com Chief Economist, Mark Zandi.

For more information regarding the above web Blog, please call Dean or Bonnie Isenberg at 305-936-2489 / 800-819-5466 or visit them on-line at A-Realtor.Com

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Miami Real Estate Information

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Short sales: A win-win or a minefield ? Call The Miami Short Sale Exprets 800-819-5466

Miami Real Estate Information

MIAMI, FLORIDA – Short sales are a financial tactic that appears only in real estate downturns. Such sales are supposed to be a win-win that gets the seller out of a tight spot, a buyer a good deal and the bank off the hook.

But what sounds like a logical alternative to the usual outcome of defaults - foreclosure - can be a minefield. Critics charge banks with being shortsighted and a menace to neighborhood home values. Banks say they have obligations to their investors. Some say inexperienced real estate agents forward irrational offers and incomplete paperwork, then expect fast miracles from their inundated staff members.

The result inside this real estate downturn has often been frustration for sellers, buyers and banks. Banks have been resistant, operating in a new financial landscape that requires permission from global investors and other parties. Many real estate agents simply avoid short sales, steering buyers to bank repos. And sellers have become frustrated by complications and 60- to 90-day timetables.

"We did everything we could do, to do the right thing, and we're not getting anywhere," said Chris Britton of Orangevale, Calif. He said he's waited five months for his lender to respond to an offer.

The lender, Bank of America, insists that he pay thousands of dollars in late fees, he said, for accepting a short sale.

Britton's real estate agent, Kathy Gheen of Fair Oaks, Calif., said it's unreasonable. Meanwhile, Britton's buyer waits. All agree the house is headed to foreclosure if nothing changes.

Agents who try short sales often accuse banks of being shortsighted, even harming the market.

Miami Real Estate Information

"If we could get to a point where a quarter of sales ... were short sales, we would see price stabilization more quickly. The neighborhoods would be maintained and the properties would not be invitations to crime," said Scott Thompson, partner in Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael, Calif.

Thompson, one of the Sacramento region's most successful short sale specialists, said banks too often ignore short sale offers, then lose $40,000 foreclosing and more selling the home in a declining market.

Bankers agree about foreclosure losses and say it may partly explain rising short sale numbers reported to the state.

But in places like California, where 78 percent of defaults end in foreclosure, according to DataQuick Information Systems, they say short sales are troublesome.

Miami Real Estate Information

"All the lien holders have to release it. It may be palatable to us. It may not be palatable to another lender. That's one of the realities of short sales. It's a practical legal reality that has to be met," said David Bradley, spokesman for Bank of America and its recent Countrywide acquisition.

Banks prefer loan modifications over short sales, said Robert Satnick, president of the California Mortgage Bankers Association. Freezing or lowering interest rates helps people who want to stay with the house. Short sales aim at owners who just want out. He also cited problems with incomplete short sale applications.

"The banks are inundated," he said. "If you give them an incomplete application, it's going to the bottom of the pile."

Pepperdine University finance professor Len Rushfield, a former bank president, said short sales may be rising but are still too much work for most banks.

"It's easier to foreclose. There's a direct process there," he said. "It may be financially a better result if you get it done through a short sale, but getting it done is the blockage."

What's the No. 1 secret to getting a short sale done successfully?

"The first thing is to contact your servicer and let them know you intend to sell," said David Knight, vice president for Wells Fargo & Co.'s default and retention division.

"In this challenging environment, if you let us know early, we can get things ready, go through the financials and get ahead of the offer. Then we can make a decision quickly."

Miami Real Estate Information

He said too often, people submit the entire packet with their first offer. Sometimes it's incomplete.

"If you have done your paperwork, you are significantly better off to benefit from the deal that comes in," he said.

For more information regarding the above web Blog, please call Dean or Bonnie Isenberg at 305-936-2489 / 800-819-5466 or visit them on-line at A-Realtor.Com

Click Here To E-Mail The “I-Team”

Click Here To Request More Information About The Above Web Blog

South Florida Real Estate Information

Miami Real Estate Information

Sell Your Boat On-Line

Thank You !

Short sales: A win-win or a minefield ? Call The Miami Short Sale Exprets 800-819-5466

Miami Real Estate Information

MIAMI, FLORIDA – Short sales are a financial tactic that appears only in real estate downturns. Such sales are supposed to be a win-win that gets the seller out of a tight spot, a buyer a good deal and the bank off the hook.

But what sounds like a logical alternative to the usual outcome of defaults - foreclosure - can be a minefield. Critics charge banks with being shortsighted and a menace to neighborhood home values. Banks say they have obligations to their investors. Some say inexperienced real estate agents forward irrational offers and incomplete paperwork, then expect fast miracles from their inundated staff members.

The result inside this real estate downturn has often been frustration for sellers, buyers and banks. Banks have been resistant, operating in a new financial landscape that requires permission from global investors and other parties. Many real estate agents simply avoid short sales, steering buyers to bank repos. And sellers have become frustrated by complications and 60- to 90-day timetables.

"We did everything we could do, to do the right thing, and we're not getting anywhere," said Chris Britton of Orangevale, Calif. He said he's waited five months for his lender to respond to an offer.

The lender, Bank of America, insists that he pay thousands of dollars in late fees, he said, for accepting a short sale.

Britton's real estate agent, Kathy Gheen of Fair Oaks, Calif., said it's unreasonable. Meanwhile, Britton's buyer waits. All agree the house is headed to foreclosure if nothing changes.

Agents who try short sales often accuse banks of being shortsighted, even harming the market.

Miami Real Estate Information

"If we could get to a point where a quarter of sales ... were short sales, we would see price stabilization more quickly. The neighborhoods would be maintained and the properties would not be invitations to crime," said Scott Thompson, partner in Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael, Calif.

Thompson, one of the Sacramento region's most successful short sale specialists, said banks too often ignore short sale offers, then lose $40,000 foreclosing and more selling the home in a declining market.

Bankers agree about foreclosure losses and say it may partly explain rising short sale numbers reported to the state.

But in places like California, where 78 percent of defaults end in foreclosure, according to DataQuick Information Systems, they say short sales are troublesome.

Miami Real Estate Information

"All the lien holders have to release it. It may be palatable to us. It may not be palatable to another lender. That's one of the realities of short sales. It's a practical legal reality that has to be met," said David Bradley, spokesman for Bank of America and its recent Countrywide acquisition.

Banks prefer loan modifications over short sales, said Robert Satnick, president of the California Mortgage Bankers Association. Freezing or lowering interest rates helps people who want to stay with the house. Short sales aim at owners who just want out. He also cited problems with incomplete short sale applications.

"The banks are inundated," he said. "If you give them an incomplete application, it's going to the bottom of the pile."

Pepperdine University finance professor Len Rushfield, a former bank president, said short sales may be rising but are still too much work for most banks.

"It's easier to foreclose. There's a direct process there," he said. "It may be financially a better result if you get it done through a short sale, but getting it done is the blockage."

What's the No. 1 secret to getting a short sale done successfully?

"The first thing is to contact your servicer and let them know you intend to sell," said David Knight, vice president for Wells Fargo & Co.'s default and retention division.

"In this challenging environment, if you let us know early, we can get things ready, go through the financials and get ahead of the offer. Then we can make a decision quickly."

Miami Real Estate Information

He said too often, people submit the entire packet with their first offer. Sometimes it's incomplete.

"If you have done your paperwork, you are significantly better off to benefit from the deal that comes in," he said.

For more information regarding the above web Blog, please call Dean or Bonnie Isenberg at 305-936-2489 / 800-819-5466 or visit them on-line at A-Realtor.Com

Click Here To E-Mail The “I-Team”

Click Here To Request More Information About The Above Web Blog

South Florida Real Estate Information

Miami Real Estate Information

Sell Your Boat On-Line

Thank You !