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Consumer Confidence Index climbs in Jan. Florida Real Estate

South Florida Real Estate - Dean Isenberg - Realtor - 305-929-DEAN

Americans’ confidence in the economy improved modestly in January for the third straight month, as they begin to feel slightly better about business conditions and the job picture, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 55.9 – the highest in more than a year but still relatively gloomy. That compares with 53.6 in December.

January’s index was better than the expected 53.5 forecast by economists.

Economists watch confidence numbers closely because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. It takes a reading of 90 to indicate an economy on solid footing and 100 or more to indicate growth.

The new figures still don’t point to an end to the nation’s economic woes any time soon.

“Consumers’ short-term outlook, while moderately more positive, does not suggest any significant pickup in activity in the coming months,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

Tuesday’s figures are based on a survey of 5,000 households by the private research group.

Capital Economics analyst Paul Dales said Americans’ sentiments are well below the Index’s historic average of 95.

“In other words, despite the fact the economy probably grew at an annualized rate in excess of 5 percent in the fourth quarter, the labor market appears to be on the cusp of generating net employment gains, interest rates are at record lows and the rally in equities remains largely intact, confidence remains incredibly depressed,” Dales wrote in a research note. “This all suggests the legacy of the recession will live long in the mindset of consumers.”

While consumers were less dire about their income prospects, “(the number of) pessimists continues to outnumber the optimists,” Franco said.

Job security is a vital part of how Americans view the economy. Those who feel better about their jobs feel more comfortable spending money, which in turn fuels the nation’s economy. That means without a meaningful and steady increase in Americans’ faith that their paychecks will keep coming, and in turn a pickup in spending, there’s unlikely to be any strong revival in the economy.

“Without a sustained acceleration in consumption growth, the overall economic recovery is doomed to disappoint,” Dales wrote.

The unemployment rate held steady in December at 10 percent, down slightly from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October. Some analysts worry it will start climbing again in coming months, and could even rise as high as 10.5 percent next summer.

The Consumer Confidence index hit a historic low of 25.3 in February after registering 37.4 last January and enjoyed a three-month climb from March through May, fueled by signs that the economy might be stabilizing.

Since June, it has bounced along anemically between 47 and 55 as rising unemployment has taken a toll.

Also Tuesday, a report showed that The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index rose for in November – its sixth straight month of increases. And 14 of 20 metro areas posted improvements from the month before.

That index is now up 3.4 percent from its bottom in May, but still 30 percent below its peak in May 2006.

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Forecast hopeful with first-time homebuyers leading the way. Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

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Aided by the homebuyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

“Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”

The 2009 National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shows that first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw-down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun says.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for homebuyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year, and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing,” Yun says. “With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010, but with wide geographic differences.”

He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8 percent in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun says. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4 percent this year, then rising 1.6 percent in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year.

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Buying a Home in Time to Get Credit - Miami Real Estate 800-819-5466

Miami Florida Real Estate Agent - Dean Isenberg - 800-819-5466

House hunting usually slows down this time of year, as people put their searches on hold during the holidays.

This winter could be different, however, thanks to the extension -- and expansion -- of the first-time home-buyer tax credit.

"We're going to see far more interest in the fourth quarter than we generally do because of the tax credit," says Heather Fernandez, vice president of Trulia.com, a real-estate search engine. Traffic surged on the site on Nov. 5, the day Congress approved the credit extension, she says.

The new law extends the tax credit for first-time home buyers and opens it up to some existing homeowners as well: The credit is now up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat buyers.

All buyers must have a binding contract on a house in place on or before April 30. The purchase must be for a principal residence and must close on or before June 30.

To be considered a first-time home buyer, an individual must not have owned a home in the past three years. And to be eligible, existing homeowners need to have lived in the same principal residence for five consecutive years during the eight-year period that ends when the new home is purchased.

Income limits have risen as well. According to the Internal Revenue Service's Web site, www.irs.gov, the home-buyer tax credit phases out for individuals with modified adjusted gross incomes between $125,000 and $145,000, and between $225,000 and $245,000 for people filing joint returns.

The inclusion of move-up buyers might inspire homeowners to take action and list their house if they've been putting it off, says Carolyn Warren, a Seattle mortgage broker.

"If people love their home, it's not going to entice them to sell," Ms. Warren says. "If they've had it in the back of their minds and really would like to move up, it might push them into doing it sooner than later."

If you're thinking of purchasing a home, here are five tips:

Don't procrastinate
Start your house search now. Getting an early start will give you a better chance of finding the right house before the credit deadline.

When first-time buyers thought that the credit would expire Nov. 30, people scrambled to find properties in September and October, says Pat Lashinsky, chief executive of ZipRealty, a residential real-estate brokerage firm. In some cases, "there wasn't inventory that fit people's needs," he says. In some markets, including Phoenix, Chicago and parts of California, for example, properties had multiple bidders, Mr. Lashinsky adds.

Before you start house hunting, get preapproved for a mortgage, says Eddie Fadel, a Miami-based mortgage banker. And do a realistic assessment of what you can afford.

Buyers who have to sell an existing home should price it aggressively from the beginning to drum up interest and get a buyer as soon as possible, Ms. Fernandez says.

Don't count on another extension
The credit won't be available forever, Mr. Fadel says.

"This is a medication for the housing crisis," he says, "Once the patient -- which is the housing market -- is cured, there will be no medication needed."

Be mindful of interest rates
Interest rates are low right now, but will likely rise next year, Ms. Warren says. Higher rates will affect your monthly mortgage payments, thus the affordability of the house you are buying.

"It's pretty universally accepted that rates will be higher next year," she says. "What is unknown is how fast and by how much."

Average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been hovering around 5%. But when the Federal Reserve stops buying large amounts of mortgage-backed securities next year, interest rates could rise, Ms. Warren points out. The Fed plans to end its purchase program in March.

Communicate with your lender
Make sure you're speaking with your lender regularly to avoid any delays. If the lender asks for any additional documentation, turn it in as soon as possible, says Doug Heddings, a New York-based real-estate agent with Charles Rutenberg Realty.

And think twice before pursuing a short sale. That's where someone sells a home for less than what he or she owes on a mortgage, with permission of the lender. The process can be lengthy and unpredictable because the homeowner's lender has to approve any deal, Ms. Warren says, and it can get complicated when there is a second mortgage associated with the property.

Don't take shortcuts
Don't forgo any of the steps you would normally take just to make the tax-credit deadline. That means making sure the house is a good fit and is in the right location and getting a home inspection, Mr. Lashinsky says. Skipping steps could cost you in the long run.

"Don't let the tax credit get you to make a decision to buy a house that you wouldn't otherwise want to buy," he says. "Don't shortcut the process to get the tax credit."

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Fed again pledges to hold rates at record-lows. Great for Real Estate

Sunny Isles Beach Real Estate

The Federal Reserve pledged Wednesday to keep a key interest rate at a record low for an “extended period,” signaling that the weak economy remains dependent on government help to grow.

The Fed said economic activity has “continued to pick up” and that the housing market has strengthened – a key ingredient for a sustained recovery.

But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues warned that rising joblessness and tight credit for many people and companies could restrain the rebound in the months ahead.

“Economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time,” they said.

Against that backdrop, the Fed kept the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent. And it made no major changes to a program to help drive down mortgage rates.

Commercial banks’ prime lending rate, used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans, will remain about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.

Still, some credit card rates have risen over the past several months. In part, that reflects rate increases by lenders in response to escalating defaults on credit card loans. Lenders also pushed through increases before a new law clamping down on sudden rate hikes for credit card customers takes effect early next year.

On Capitol Hill, the House voted Wednesday to accelerate the enactment date of the new rules to protect consumers from many such surprise changes. Credit card companies would have to comply immediately, rather than starting in February, unless they agreed to freeze interest rates and fees. But the proposal’s chances in the Senate are considered dim.

The average rate nationwide on a variable-rate credit card is 11.5 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Lenders charge more and credit card customers pay rates higher than the prime because the debt they run up is riskier.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average at first held onto an increase of more than 100 points after the Fed’s announcement. But stocks eventually gave up most of their gains in a late-day slump. It wasn’t clear how much of a role the Fed’s statement played. Some analysts noted that investors are nervous as the release of the government’s October jobs report on Friday approaches.

In normal times, the Fed controls only short-term rates. But after the financial crisis erupted, the Fed began buying longer-term Treasuries. Its purchases kept those rates lower than they’d otherwise be.

This is good news for borrowers with auto loans, some student loans, 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and some adjustable-rate mortgages. But it hurts savers and people dependent on fixed incomes who would normally be enjoying higher yields.

On Wednesday, the Fed stuck with its pledge to keep rates at “exceptionally low” levels for “an extended period.” Most analysts don’t think the Fed would begin to boost rates until next spring or summer.

Fed policymakers “believe they need to keep rates low to ensure that the recovery doesn’t falter,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The central bank hopes low rates will encourage consumers and businesses to boost spending, which would invigorate the recovery. The Fed signaled that it can continue to hold rates low because inflation is all but nonexistent.

The Fed has now entered a new phase: Managing the recovery rather than fighting the worst recession and financial crisis to hit the country since the Great Depression.

The economy began growing again last quarter for the first time in more than a year. But much of that growth came from government-supported spending on homes and cars. The strength and staying power of the recovery are uncertain, especially once government supports are removed.

In such a fragile recovery, a rate increase by the Fed is unlikely anytime soon, said Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“Growth does not mean a rate hike,” Rupkey said.

As with past rebounds, the budding recovery won’t likely stop the unemployment rate from rising. The rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent, is expected to hit 9.9 percent on Friday, when the government releases the unemployment report for October. The jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining, analysts said.

At some point, once the recovery is firmly rooted, the Fed is likely to start signaling that higher rates are coming. One hint of an eventual rate hike would be the Fed’s changing or dropping its pledge to hold rates at record-low levels for an “extended period.”

It’s a delicate task. Boosting rates and removing supports too soon could short-circuit the recovery. On the other hand, holding rates low and keeping government supports intact too long could unleash inflation.

Though it didn’t change a program to help drive down mortgage rates, the Fed did say it will trim its purchases of debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $175 billion, from $200 billion, because the supply of that debt has declined.

At its previous meeting in late September, the Fed agreed to slow the pace of a $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It decided to wrap up the purchases by the end of March instead of at year-end. So far, the Fed has bought $776 billion of the mortgage securities.

Its efforts to lower mortgage rates are paying off. Rates on 30-year loans averaged 5.03 percent, Freddie Mac reported last week. That’s down from 6.46 percent last year.

Though the Fed will slow its purchases of mortgage securities, rates for home loans should remain low – in the 5 percent range – as long as the purchases continue, analysts say.

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Tax credit extension passes House and Senate. Florida Real Estate

Miami Florida Real Estate -

WASHINGTON – Nov. 5, 2009 – The $8,000, first-time homebuyer tax credit has not yet been extended beyond its Nov. 30 end date, but it’s very close to gaining a longer life.

The extension was added as an amendment to an existing bill, HR 3548, that extends unemployment benefits. The U.S. Senate passed that bill on Wednesday and, after debate, the U.S. House passed HR 3548 this afternoon. It now needs only President Obama’s signature to become law, and the White House has indicated it will sign it, perhaps as early as tomorrow.

Until the president signs the bill, however, it is not law.

In addition to extending the tax credit for first-time homebuyers under the current rules, the bill adds a smaller tax credit for move-up homebuyers who have lived in the house for five of the past seven years. The bill also increases the income limits of homebuyers from $75,000 (single) to $125,000; and from $150,000 (married) to $225,000.

Florida downpayment assistance

After the president signs the bill and extends the tax credit, the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program – a downpayment and closing costs assistance program relating to the federal tax credit –automatically gets extended too. The state still has about $28 million available for homebuyers. The money is essentially a loan to first-time buyers; they receive it upfront, use it for a downpayment or other costs, and pay it back once they get their federal refund.

For more information on the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program, visit the Homebuyer Center on floridarealtors.org: http://www.floridarealtors.org/AboutFar/homebuyercenter/index.cfm

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First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit May Be Extended. Aventura Real Estate 800-819-5466

Aventura Real Estate - Miami Florida -

The current $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers is scheduled to end on November 30, 2009. An amendment to expand the tax credit, sponsored by Sen. Johnny Isakson of Georgia, is expected to be attached to a Senate bill extending unemployment compensation.

The new version would allow all home buyers -- not just first-time buyers -- who earn less than $150,000 as individuals and $300,000 as married couples to receive a tax credit up to $8,000. The cost of the new version of the tax credit is nearly $17 billion. The new tax credit would run through June 30, 2010.

However, shortly before we went to press, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan told the Senate Banking Committee that the White House hadn't make a decision about extending the tax credit and was looking at the costs.

In the meantime, home buyers continue to ask a lot of questions about how to apply the current tax credit.

Q: My daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, has lived in a foreign country for the past 23 years. So one could say her primary residence is not in the U.S. She and her husband recently purchased a home in the U.S. that will be used as a rental property. Will she be able to claim the first time home buyer tax credit?

A: Unfortunately, the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit (in its current incarnation) is only available for individuals who have not owned a home during the last three years and intend on using the purchased home as a primary residence.

Since your daughter intends on using the home as a rental, it will not qualify for the tax credit.

By the way, although the $8,000 tax credit has not yet been extended beyond its current sunset date of November 30, the new version being proposed does not provide a tax credit for investment property. It is only for those who are buying a home to live in.

Q: The closing on my house will occur at the end of October or the beginning of November. I should be eligible for the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

But here's the wrinkle: I will be inheriting a house in November when my father's estate comes out of probate. Will that make me ineligible for the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit? I plan to live in the house that I am purchasing.

A: The rules relating to the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit require you to be a first-time home buyer by the date of the closing. If you close on your home at the end of October and at that time qualify for the tax credit, you shouldn't have to worry about whether you're inheriting a house the following month. You need only comply with the other requirements.

To qualify for the tax credit, you must not have owned a home during the three years prior to the closing. You must live in the home you buy for three years and must use it as your primary residence.

Your modified adjusted gross income may not exceed $75,000 for single people and $150,000 for married couples. Above those numbers, the tax credit phases out. (Your adjusted gross income is basically what you would see at the bottom of the first page of your federal income tax return.)

To get the full benefit of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, the sales price of the home must be at least $80,000. The tax credit equals 10 percent of the purchase price of the home, up to a maximum of $8,000.

Most importantly, you must close on the purchase of your new primary residence no later than November 30, 2009.

There are other rules that provide that the home must be located in the United States. Non-resident aliens are ineligible to obtain the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and you can't buy the home from a close relative.

In answer to your question, if you inherit the home after you close on your primary residence, you should still be entitled to keep the tax credit as long as you live in the home you purchased for at least three years.

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